WTO forecasts 9.5% growth in trade volumes
The World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a rebound in world trade in 2010, recovering some, but by no means all, ground lost in 2009, when global trade volumes contracted 12.2% — the largest decline since World War II. If growth keeps to the current pace, it will take another year for trade volumes to surpass 2008 peak levels.
The WTO report measures trade on a volume basis because it provides a more reliable point of year-by-year comparison, undistorted by changes in commodity prices or currency fluctuations.
One good thing about the dismal year just past: no significant new barriers to trade were raised. Trade volumes tumbled because global demand contracted. The mix of products involved, the presence of global supply chains, and the synchronization of decline across countries were factors that steepened the fall.
Showing posts with label trade forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade forecast. Show all posts
Monday, March 29, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Cloudy with a chance of …
Trade outlook depends on the dollar’s rise and fall
Back from a three-day weekend you might have picked up a copy of the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday to find the U.S. dollar had strengthened relative to the euro, the result of a crisis of confidence in the European Union’s ability to cope with the struggling Greek economy. If, on the other hand, you read the Journal’s digital edition online with your morning coffee, you learned that the dollar’s surge had snapped as investors pushed the euro to its biggest single-day gain since July.
No matter whose trade forecast(s) you follow, the biggest variable (barring catastrophe) is the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar — and that can turn on a dime.
You can follow the dollar’s fortunes online with ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), a leading benchmark for the international value of the U.S. dollar since its origination by the New York Board of Trade, or NYBOT. (The ICE, or Intercontinental Exchange, acquired NYBOT in 2007.) The ICE USDX Futures line graph captures the dollar’s fluctuations intraday or, over the last 3 months, year, or 2 years. The dollar-tracker at INO.com offers a bit more detail, and a few more choices of short timeframes. To monitor trends and calculate the value of your dollars against 164 currencies and 3 metals, try the Oanda currency converter.
Back from a three-day weekend you might have picked up a copy of the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday to find the U.S. dollar had strengthened relative to the euro, the result of a crisis of confidence in the European Union’s ability to cope with the struggling Greek economy. If, on the other hand, you read the Journal’s digital edition online with your morning coffee, you learned that the dollar’s surge had snapped as investors pushed the euro to its biggest single-day gain since July.
No matter whose trade forecast(s) you follow, the biggest variable (barring catastrophe) is the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar — and that can turn on a dime.
You can follow the dollar’s fortunes online with ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), a leading benchmark for the international value of the U.S. dollar since its origination by the New York Board of Trade, or NYBOT. (The ICE, or Intercontinental Exchange, acquired NYBOT in 2007.) The ICE USDX Futures line graph captures the dollar’s fluctuations intraday or, over the last 3 months, year, or 2 years. The dollar-tracker at INO.com offers a bit more detail, and a few more choices of short timeframes. To monitor trends and calculate the value of your dollars against 164 currencies and 3 metals, try the Oanda currency converter.
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